Incidents which have already cost millions. I put this at the top as this can be an unbelievable problem without seeing which problems have already happened.
The year 2000 is a big problem for computers and systems. And it's going to get worse. I do not plan on making any phone calls or being on an airplane over midnight. Will my phone work? Will the power systems computers still be controlling the power networks? Will the natural gas still be coming through the pipes? Will I be able to use my bank card? Will I still be able to access the funds in my bank account? Will the tills at the local Co-op grocery store still work? Will the grocery store still receive its daily shipments of food? Will the federal government still be able to pay my parent's pension? Will the provincial government be able to pay it's doctors?
"Owing to past neglect, in the face of the plainest warnings, we have now entered upon a period of danger. The era of procrastination, of half measures, ... of delays, is coming to its close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences ... we cannot avoid this period; we are in it now. Unless this government resolves to find out the truth for itself, it will have committed an act of abdication of duty without parallel" -- Winston Churchill, Nov.12, 1936
Melodramatic? Maybe. Overblown? No.
"Canada is headed for an economic crisis that will rival the Wall Street crash of 1929 unless companies do something about the end-of-the century software flaw..." "CIBC will have 300 people working on this problem and have budgeted $100 million." Computing Canada, June 20, 1996. Air Canada is replacing their entire administrative computers with new systems.
Some estimates are that five to twenty percent of all businesses will close their doors because of this problem. Or they will merge with companies who already have this problem solved.
What is the problem? Years past, when computers, in speed and capacity, were much more expensive than they are now and resources much more limited, systems designers only left two digits for the year. When the year 2000 comes the number of days or years will be calculated incorrectly. Right now an age is computer from subtracting the birth year, say 53 from 97 giving 44. But subtracting 53 from 00 gives -47. How will the computer deal with a negative number? Will interest be calculated on a loan as being overdue 100 years? And so on.
I, too, was one of those system designers. I never dreamed that some systems I designed fifteen years ago would still be in use. As an industry we figured that in five years our code would be completely replaced. Not so.
Computer folks with the right skills are expecting to be billing their services at $200 to $500 per hour or more in 1999. This is the individuals take home rate. The organizations will be marking up these rates accordingly. No sane contractor is signing contracts longer than six months right now because they want to make sure they won’t be left behind as the standard hourly rate goes up.
But no sane computer person wants to be frantically working in 1999 on this problem. Too many mistakes can happen when you can’t analyze the problem properly. We’d far sooner see everyone work on the problem now and coast in 1999. (Actually it’ll be more a matter of working on those foolish organizations who left their problems until 1998.)
There will not be a magic solution which some genius can solve. There are far too many varying systems, computer languages, programming styles, interrelated systems and many other factors. There is no such thing as a "Silver Bullet" which will solve all your problems. This demands competent, trained, experienced people who can do a thorough job
For a far better and much more complete explanation than I can provide see Computer World Article: Doomsday written in 1993. For additional information visit the Year 2000 site or Year2000 Information Network - Article Archive. For information, diagnostic tools and fixes pertaining specifically to PC motherboards, BIOS's and DOS visit RighTime or NTSL.
For very interesting discussions, and some interesting misconceptions, of the problem visit the newsgroup comp.software.year-2000. Visit Pam Hystad's unofficial newsgroup FAQ.
Visit Dr. Ed Yardeni's website for an economists prediction. Last I heard he was predicting a 40% chance of a recession.
Visit Ed Yourdon's website for a computer programmer/consultants viewpoint. His book, Time Bomb 2000, is highly recommended. "Prentice Hall describes it as the fastest-selling computer-science book they've published in over 10 years.
Visit Yahoo's Year 2000 Problem links and in Canada.
Denizens of the comp.software.year-2000 newsgroup.
Visit Cory Hamasaki's informative web page. He has several decades of experience with IBM mainframes. His regular DC Y2K Weather Reports are a delight to read.
Arnold Tremblay's Year 2000 Time Machine Testing Reports are a fascinating in depth view of how MasterCard International are working on the problem.
Dave Eastabrooks Year 2000 page. He also has some good humour.
A very interesting Year 2000 problem known as "Time Dilation", or "the Crouch, Echlin Effect."
A speech by the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to Institute of International Finance in Hong Kong. Note that, if my understanding of the American banking system is correct, Mr. McDonough is the second in command of the American central bank. The best quotes follow:
It is.
Very unlikely.
Trust is not a substitute for testing.
The lawyers may get rich, but will you be in business?
Previous internal testing standards probably won't do the job this time.
Good luck.
My sample informal letter to send to your software vendors is available here. I'm sure there are many better and more legalistic letters out there.
I'm not as concerned about standard off the shelf software products such as those available in the retail computer stores and thus on my list below. These folks have relatively standard software complete with source code, are used to updating it reasonably often, have the resources to fix things and get them out there.
I'm very frightened about the provincial and federal governments plans or lack thereof. These organizations are, by definition, bureaucratic. Will the administrators wake up in time? From comments in the Year 2000 newsgroup it appears that the technical people have been warning the administrators. But it's been a low priority. This applies to corporate as well as government organizations.
One consultant from the U.S. said he turned down a ten million dollar contract with a state government because the demands were far too strict, the post year 2000 warranty requirements were far too excessive and his people were busy enough dealing with private organizations who had a rational understanding of the requirements.
In my area I'm mostly concerned about the medium sized organizations such as implement dealers, automobile dealers, parts stores and other organizations which have software products running on mini-computer or multi-user systems. And where the organizations don't have their own computer programmer/analysts or access to the source code. Especially on older systems which have been customized to meet their requirements and which are running using duct tape and bailing wire. <grin> Are their vendors, typically smaller outfits, going to have the resources and expertise to fix all their systems out there?
My clients are running a diverse range of software products. A few vendors have already started to address this problem.
No response may simply mean that I was unable to determine an email address for the company.
I will update this page as I receive information and/or URLs from the companies involved.
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